We live in sobering times. Just switch on the news, and it's a bleak picture. I'd have thought world events might make more people reach for the hard stuff, but it seems sobriety is extending to the 'basket of goods' used to work out inflation. For the first time, alcohol-free beer has been added to a list used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), joining around 760 items that are closely monitored for price fluctuations.
Hummus and pet grooming have also been included on the list, and the data ultimately feeds into the Consumer Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index, and the measures used by the ONS to calculate inflation. When it comes to hummus, sales have soared among health-conscious consumers to an eye watering £170 million in 2024. Weight loss drugs are also thought to be a factor in its popularity. Alcohol-free beer always sees a surge in sales during Dry January, but pop into any supermarket and you'll see much more shelf space dedicated to it nowaways. We've come a long way since the days of Billy Connolly advertising Kaliber on telly.
Also added to the list are dashboard cameras. Sales in 2023 reached about £150 million, and the ONS reckon this trend will continue "as consumers hope to lower their insurance costs and provide parking security". There's also always a chance of getting a good Ronnie Pickering style clip for one of those telly shows about bad drivers. Motorhome sales are also on the rise, as early retirement booms.
The popularity of small dogs can perhaps account for the rise in the popularity of dog grooming services, and it's said to be the number one cost after health checks, especially when it comes to dogs with a curly coat of hair. Leaving the basket to make some space are bottled premium lager and sheets of wrapping paper (rolls have replaced them, as they are easier to track, apparently!).
Interest rates are likely to hold in the latest update from the Bank of England, but predicting economic matters is a dangerous game, so by the time you read this, they might have gone up. Petrol and diesel prices have certainly been rocketing, and whilst retailers deny allegations of 'price gouging', the Competition and Markets Authority is certainly being kept busy with demands for them to keep a close eye on things.
Last year, VR headsets, yoga mats and sliders kicked DVD rentals and minced turkey out of the inflation basket. It's a useful way of mapping trends in consumer behaviour, and certainly even I have stopped getting DVDs by post these days (although I miss the envelope coming through the door, and take great delight in reminding anyone who will listen that Netflix began life as a DVD by post service).
What else can we monitor to get an accurate guide to inflation? The price of the humble Freddo has been much discussed over the years, and you'll struggle to find one for less than 35p these days. I find £2 is the new £1, and stuff is much more likely to be rounded up than down. I know that retailers are facing a lot of added costs too, but it's crazy to think that £30 used to get you a reasonable amount of items at the supermarket. Now, £50 only really gets you a modest trolleyload.
Whilst I'm not sure it was of the highest quality, we used to finish a night out at uni in Liverpool in 1995 with a 99p pizza, whilst pints at the student union bar cost £1 (although admittedly they were fairly close to water in terms of the alcohol content). It's scary how much prices are soaring in light of Trump's Iran war, and mortgages are also heading towards Liz Truss lettuce levels, with hundreds of products being taken off sale in recent days. Ukraine and Covid have of course also caused economic storms.
It's come to something too when bars of chocolate have to be kept in security boxes in supermarkets, such is the level of theft. I recently spoke to a staff member at a branch of Co-op, who told me they are insructed not to intervene in instances of shoplifting, but often find that customers do intervene. Every item that's nicked simply bumps prices up further. Shoplifting has doubled in recent times.
We certainly live in tumultuous times. I might cheer myself up with a croissant (also added to the basket of goods) dipped into a pot of houmous.
Alex Cann's weekly blog - 9th January
