Chesterfield v Latics: bad and good news

Let’s start with the bad news. James Reade, economics professor at Reading university, has been in touch about my assertion last week that Latics require 1.8333 points per game to reach 71 points. By his calculations, which are far more trustworthy than mine – who says you won’t amount to anything without GCSE maths? – Latics will need more than 71 points to clinch seventh place this season. Professor Reade reckons the target is a minimum of 74 points.

Now we’re back on my calculations: Latics need 22 points from 11 games to get to 74 points. Let’s see. If you divide the number of games by the number of points…no that’s not right is it?

Latics need 2.0 points per game to reach 74 points. In the amazing run of form since their last defeat, they’re averaging just shy of 2.43.

MELLON’S COMFORT ZONE

That was and is the extent of the bad news emanating from Boundary Park just now. The good news is that Latics’ win against Grimsby Town on Saturday was a Micky Mellon masterclass.

Mellon knew that his side needed to win the game to keep their season alive, and his players responded in tremendous style. They were brilliant in defence, dogged and finally devastating in midfield, and did way more up front than their opponents. They totally deserved it. In many ways, it was a more impressive performance than the bigger wins Latics have enjoyed recently. Latics went to battle on Saturday against a good side and came out winners.

Now to another cup final, this time away at Chesterfield, whom Latics absolutely trounced in the 1-1 draw at Boundary Park on new year’s day. That draw, along with just a couple or three other results, will haunt Mellon and his players if they fall short of the play-offs.

How did Joe Quigley fail to stick it into the open goal from a couple of yards in the first half? How did Joe Garner miss the stoppage-time penalty in front of the Jimmy Frizzell? And how did Manny Monthé fail to head the ball into an empty net from inches with the final touch of the game?

Mellon loves a redemption arc, cherishes the opportunity for his players to make good on unfinished business. The tougher the challenge, the happier he is. Being up against it is Mellon’s comfort zone.

WHAT GOOD LOOKS LIKE

Professor Reade also highlighted one very, very impressive stat from this season that had escaped me: last season, Latics used (if I recall correctly) some 44 players all in. (Mellon was never out of the transfer market in search of the squad that could win him three games on the spin and send Latics into the Football League.)

Guess how many players Latics have used this season in league football? Twenty-seven. That’s it. We’re joint second-lowest with MK Dons, behind only Cambridge United and Bromley.

The January transfer window was, on the face of it, a massive coup for the club (we can only guess at the numbers involved), especially the magic trick at the end when Bristol Rovers paid actual pounds sterling for Joe Quigley. The fact that Latics, collectively – Mellon and his staff, and the backroom and upstairs folk – are cutting their cloth like the best in the division cut theirs is so, so promising, whether the team are playing in League Two or League One next season.

In the last seven games, Mellon has made only one change to the starting line-up, with Will Sutton coming in for the injured Jake Caprice. Is that what good looks like? Yes, I think it is.